STAY AHEAD OF GLOBAL TEXTILE MARKETS
Timely market perspectives covering cotton, yarn, textiles, trade, logistics and key developments shaping global sourcing decisions.
October 26–30, 2026
ICE cotton moved lower despite another rise in U.S. export sales. China’s polyester chain faced firmer feedstock costs but weak downstream demand, while global and intra-Asia freight diverged and WTI remained supported by tighter U.S. inventories and supply risk.
Data cutoff: October 30, 2026, 8:24 a.m. New York time (EDT, UTC−4). Latest confirmed cotton and WTI settlements: October 29. China’s PTA, MEG and PSF figures are October 30 day-session closing prices, not settlement prices. This is a Friday-morning update, not a completed U.S. weekly close.
GLOBALEXIM’s opening-month view on prices, demand and sourcing conditions, as of October 2.
Stronger price negotiation, rather than a broad market recovery. We expect lower cotton futures to put pressure on new cotton-yarn offers, while a reported local PSF output cut may support some sellers. Freight remains route-specific. Actual October orders and executable mill and shipping quotations after China’s Golden Week will be more informative than a single raw-material price move.
Cotton · Yarn & Textiles · Trade & Logistics · Crude Oil & PSF
Texas A&M’s October 29 summary puts ICE December 2026 cotton settlement at 78.50 US cents/lb, 2.29 cents below October 22. USDA reports 216,500 running bales of net U.S. upland export sales for 2026/27 in the week ended October 22, up 8% from the previous week. Shipments fell 18% to 160,800 running bales. Improved sales provide support, but slower shipments and advancing harvest supply keep pressure on the market.
CCFGroup’s October 26 review finds that China’s post-holiday improvement in polyester-chain orders did not persist. Downstream orders fell short of expectations, fabric-mill operating rates declined and inventory pressure increased. With late October marking the end of the autumn/winter peak production season, November demand is expected to depend mainly on replenishment rather than a broad recovery.
Drewry’s October 29 global WCI fell 3% to US$4,429 per 40ft container, reversing two weeks of increases, while its intra-Asia index rose US$46 to US$1,504 per 40ft container. The intra-Asia index excludes origin and destination terminal handling charges. Drewry also reports average vessel waiting time at Ho Chi Minh City rising from 8 to 22 hours over the preceding fortnight as of Week 43. These indices are not quotations for a specific shipment.
WTI December 2026 settled October 29 at US$102.00/barrel, according to WSJ market reporting. CCFGroup reports China’s October 30 futures closes at PTA January 2027: CNY6,686/t; MEG January 2027: CNY5,392/t; PSF December 2026: CNY8,568/t (metric tonnes), all above the previous settlement. The MEG lead contract is now January 2027, so it is not directly comparable with last issue’s November 2026 contract. These are futures—not mill offers; no comparable physical-PSF weekly benchmark was verified.
U.S. crop progress: USDA’s October 26 report puts cotton harvest at 52% as of October 25, versus the 2021–2025 average of 45%. Good/excellent crop condition declined to 33%, from 35% on October 18. Harvest is seven points ahead of its seasonal average; condition ratings are not a measure of harvested fibre quality.
Watch whether stronger U.S. cotton sales convert into improved shipments as harvest advances; whether China’s firm polyester feedstock costs can pass through while downstream mills reduce operating rates; and whether Ho Chi Minh City vessel waiting times ease. For oil, monitor verified diplomatic and supply developments together with the next U.S. inventory report.
Cotton — downward bias. For ICE December 2026 over November 2–6, the 2.29-cent decline through October 29, harvest at 52% versus the 45% five-year average and an 18% weekly drop in shipments outweigh the support from higher net sales. Another strong sales week accompanied by a recovery in shipments and material weather or quality disruption would overturn this view. Physical-cotton basis and quality premiums can move differently.
Crude oil — upward bias. For WTI December 2026 over November 2–6, the contract remains above its October 22 settlement and EIA reports U.S. commercial crude inventories down 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million in the week ended October 23. Persistent Middle East supply risks support a firmer base case. Verified diplomatic de-escalation accompanied by an inventory rebuild would weaken this view.
PSF — slight upward bias. For China’s virgin spinning-PSF mill offers over November 2–6, firmer October 30 PTA, MEG and PSF futures increase cost pressure and may prompt somewhat higher offers. Weak downstream orders and divergent plant sales should limit pass-through. A sustained reversal in PTA/MEG futures while physical offtake remains weak would overturn this view. Futures levels are not forecasts for mill offers.
These are GLOBALEXIM’s own market opinions as of October 30, 2026, for reference—not purchase, sale or investment recommendations. Views may change and do not guarantee price movements.
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Cotton, yarn and textiles, freight, crude oil and PSF, with GLOBALEXIM's outlook as originally published.
Read this issue →Cotton, yarn and textiles, freight, crude oil and PSF, with GLOBALEXIM's outlook as originally published.
Read this issue →Cotton, yarn and textiles, freight, crude oil and PSF, with GLOBALEXIM's outlook as originally published.
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