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Timely market perspectives covering cotton, yarn, textiles, trade, logistics and key developments shaping global sourcing decisions.
September 28–October 2, 2026
Cotton has moved sharply lower, while freight remains divided by route. Our focus is how these changes may affect new yarn offers, polyester costs and October sourcing.
Updated October 2, 2026. Cotton prices are through the October 1 settlement; the October 2 settlement is not included. Other data retain the reference dates stated below.
GLOBALEXIM’s opening-month view on prices, demand and sourcing conditions, as of October 2.
Stronger price negotiation, rather than a broad market recovery. We expect lower cotton futures to put pressure on new cotton-yarn offers, while a reported local PSF output cut may support some sellers. Freight remains route-specific. Actual October orders and executable mill and shipping quotations after China’s Golden Week will be more informative than a single raw-material price move.
Cotton · Yarn & Textiles · Trade & Logistics · Crude Oil & PSF
ICE December 2026 cotton settled at 77.76¢/lb on October 1, down 4.95¢ (6.0%) from 82.71¢/lb on September 25. Texas A&M’s October 1 summary reported USDA net upland export sales of 202,600 running bales for 2026/27 in the week ended September 24, slightly below the prior week.
Lower cotton futures are likely to strengthen buyers’ negotiating position on new cotton-yarn orders. We expect gradual repricing rather than an immediate, uniform fall: existing cotton inventories, yarn count, quality and shipment dates affect pass-through. Actual October orders and comparable mill quotations remain the key checks.
Drewry’s October 1 assessment put WCI at US$4,434 per 40ft container, down 1% week on week, while its Intra-Asia index rose 2% to US$1,518. Shanghai–Ho Chi Minh City increased 7% to US$1,377 per 40ft container, excluding origin and destination terminal handling charges. Vietnam-related freight is not following the global index uniformly.
EIA spot prices for September 29 were Brent US$113.96 and WTI US$96.16 per barrel, both below the prior business day. CCFGroup reported a further direct-spun PSF output cut at one Fujian plant on September 29 and no improvement in plant sales on September 30. PTA/MEG costs and actual plant demand remain the key PSF checks.
U.S. crop progress: USDA’s September 28 report put cotton harvest at 17% as of September 27, versus the 15% five-year average; 35% of the crop was rated good or excellent.
U.S. harvest and export demand; October yarn orders in Vietnam and Asia; comparable PTA/MEG and PSF offers; and vessel space on Vietnam-related routes after China’s Golden Week.
Cotton — downward bias. We expect ICE December 2026 to remain under pressure: harvest is slightly ahead of its seasonal norm and weekly export sales are softer. Stronger mill demand or material harvest disruption would make us reconsider. Physical-cotton basis and quality premiums may move differently from futures.
Crude oil — slight downward bias. We lean toward modest easing rather than a sustained new rise. Softer EIA spot observations and the weaker-to-sideways WTI pattern reported by Texas A&M support this view. Confidence is limited because the spot reference ends on September 29. A confirmed supply disruption or a sustained reversal in newer price data would change the assessment.
PSF — modest upward bias. Our tentative view is for slightly firmer offers for China’s virgin PSF used in spinning. The reported output cut offers some support to sellers, but unimproved plant sales limit upside. This is not a confirmed market-wide price increase; a material fall in PTA/MEG costs or restored output would weaken it.
These are GLOBALEXIM’s own market opinions as of October 2, 2026, for reference—not purchase, sale or investment recommendations. Views may change and do not guarantee price movements.
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